Japan Institute for National Fundamentals
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Speaking out

Yoshiko Sakurai

【#1353】Takaichi Should Encourage Trump to Deter China

Yoshiko Sakurai ／ 2026.03.12 (Thu)


March 9, 2026

　
The latest U.S. and Israeli military attacks on Iran have blocked Iran’s nuclear development for the time being. Iran has attacked not only Israel but also Sunni Arab countries in the Gulf region, leading them to abandon their neutral stance and issue a joint statement with the United States to condemn Iran. The balance of power in the Middle East is expected to change significantly.

As Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu addressed a joint session of the U.S. House and Senate in 2024, the Abraham Accords, which normalized relations between Israel and some Arab countries, could lead to an Abraham Alliance to further develop the spirit of the Accords. Such a development would likely strengthen the influence of Israel and the U.S. in the Middle East.

Prolonging the war against Iran is a bad idea

On the path toward this stage, Japan should present three key positions to the international community. The first is an advice to the U.S. The biggest strategic challenge facing the U.S. in the current international order is a long-term great power competition with China. The U.S. National Defense Strategy designates the maintenance of deterrence in the Indo-Pacific region as the second most important priority after security in the Western Hemisphere. The stability of the Taiwan Strait and the East China Sea is directly linked to Japan’s national security. It is important for Japan and the U.S. to share the need for strategic resource management to prevent U.S. military operations in the Middle East from undermining deterrence against China.

The depletion of precision weapons is a particular matter of concern. A large-scale consumption of cruise and precision-guided missiles affects the reliability of deterrence in the Indo-Pacific. If the U.S. deploys ground troops in Iran, strategic U.S. resources may be depleted over a long term, as shown by the experiences of the Afghanistan and Iraq wars. Such a situation would present a strategic opportunity for China and would likely be most welcomed by Beijing.

It is true that preventing Iran’s nuclear weapon development and maintaining stability in the Middle East are important for the international community. However, none should forget the reality that the strategic center of gravity of the U.S. is in the Indo-Pacific. The U.S. is required to carefully control the scale and duration of military operations in the Middle East to ensure that they do not undermine deterrence against China. At the Japan-U.S. summit scheduled for March 19, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi should discuss and share this strategic awareness with President Donald Trump.

Don’t spare support for Iran’s peaceful nuclear energy use

“I condemn Iran’s actions,” Takaichi said, underscoring Japan’s opposition to Iran’s attacks on civilian and diplomatic facilities in neighboring countries. Building on that, it is important for the prime minister to emphasize that Japan will spare no effort in providing assistance when Iran seeks to rebuild itself as a democratic nation. Particularly, Takaichi should express her determination to support Iran’s peaceful use of nuclear energy, drawing on Japan’s experience in having gained the trust of the international community.

Finally, it is time for Takaichi to express her determination that Japan will become a normal democratic nation, which means realizing her ruling Liberal Democratic Party’s core principle of constitutional amendment, becoming a country that would defend itself through its own efforts, and contributing to Asia and the entire world in accordance with Japan’s national character. She should also come up with specific measures to substantially enhance Japan’s defense capabilities to address every crisis in cooperation with the U.S.

Yoshiko Sakurai is President, Japan Institute for National Fundamentals.