Japan Institute for National Fundamentals

　
The first significance of this year’s Asia Security Summit, the Shangri-La Dialogue, in late May was that U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth emphasized that “America is a Pacific nation” and made clear that the United States’ approach in the Pacific centers on “deterrence by denial” along the First Island Chain linking Japan, Taiwan, and the Philippines. Deterrence by denial means to lead an adversary to give up on its attacks by convincing the adversary that its attacks will fail.

Hegseth at the Dialogue sounded a strong alarm regarding China’s “historic military buildup” and the expansion of its military activities and urged U.S. allies in the Pacific region to increase their defense spending to 3.5% of their respective gross domestic product (GDP) and develop their capabilities to “prepare for war.” “Less Shangri-La, more ships, more subs,” he said in a manner to symbolize American realism that values real military power over conference diplomacy.

On the other hand, Hegseth said that he did not want “needless confrontation” with China and refrained from mentioning Taiwan, toning down year-earlier warnings towards China. This made the U.S.’ intention to deter China less visible to U.S. allies.

Koizumi: Japan will be a “connecting point” for regional cooperation

The second significance of the latest Shangri-La Dialogue is that Japanese Defense Minister Shinjiro Koizumi’s speech clearly articulated the direction Japan should take. Emphasizing the necessity of “trust, transparency, and dialogue” based on the Free and Open Indo-Pacific (FOIP) initiative, Koizumi noted that Japan would fundamentally reinforce defense capabilities, revise three strategic documents including the National Security Strategy, and strengthen its defense industry base. He also stressed that Japan would serve as a “connecting point” for regional cooperation through the expansion of defense equipment transfers and official security assistance (OSA). Koizumi’s recognition that “division weakens deterrence, [while] unity strengthens deterrence” is highly sound. His approach of having Japan “turn points into lines, and from lines into planes” — by building on the Japan-U.S. alliance to expand cooperation with Australia, the Philippines, Britain, the Quad (Japan, the U.S., Australia, and India), and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) — is both realistic and strategic.

It is also significant that Koizumi, though refraining from naming China, pushed back clearly by arguing that labeling Japan, a country that possesses neither nuclear weapons nor strategic bombers, “new militarism” is a perverse distortion. For a China that prioritizes propaganda over crisis management talks, it is essential for Japan to engage in such debates openly and confidently at international conferences.

From passive security posture to key actor

Based on the discussions at this year’s Shangri-La Dialogue, the strategy Japan should adopt has become even clearer. It is important for Japan to make self-driven efforts to further keep the U.S. in Asia while expanding security cooperation with countries such as the Philippines and Australia to develop multilayer deterrence based on the Japan-U.S. alliance. In this regard, the Sanae Takaichi administration’s efforts to conclude a General Security of Military Information Agreement (GSOMIA) with the Philippines and to enhance cooperation in the energy and resources sector under the POWERR Asia (Partnership on Wide Energy and Resources Resilience Asia) initiative can be highly regarded as paving the way for a more integrated strengthening of regional security across the information, economic, and energy domains.

The latest Shangri-La Dialogue should be regarded as an important strategic turning point where Japan demonstrated its willingness to break away from a passive security posture and move forward as a proactive actor supporting regional order.

Kiyofumi Iwata is a member of the Planning Committee at the Japan Institute for National Fundamentals. Formerly, he served as Chief of Staff of the Japan Ground Self-Defense Force.