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Takashi Arimoto

【#1335】Japan’s Future Course at Stake in Lower House Election

Takashi Arimoto ／ 2026.01.21 (Wed)


January 13, 2026

　
Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi will dissolve the House of Representatives at the outset of the annual National Diet session on January 23. Both ruling and opposition camp lawmakers may ask, “Why now?” Given the current international situation surrounding Japan, however, it is understandable that Takaichi, who heads the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, wants to establish a stable political base. It is such an important time for Japan’s future course.

Although the LDP and its new coalition partner, Japan Innovation Party, barely maintain a majority of the 465-seats in the lower house, they have a risk to lose the majority if even one member of the ruling camp is absent. Moreover, the ruling parties remain a minority in the House of Councillors, the other chamber of the Diet. In the meantime, international tensions are growing in the midst of the Ukraine war, anti-government demonstrations in Iran, U.S.-Europe confrontation over Greenland, and China’s military coercion on Taiwan.

Significance of the coalition

Within the ruling camp, LDP Executive Acting Secretary-General Koichi Hagiuda, who had been cautious about the early lower house dissolution, has expressed his understanding about Takaichi’s decision, saying, “It is important for national security to develop a domestic environment that strengthens the country’s messaging capability in the international community.” Seeking voters’ verdict on coalition policies agreed between the LDP and JIP last autumn, and appealing for strong public support to ensure stable and steady governance in dealing with foreign and security policy, economic policy, social security, and other pressing issues, would constitute a legitimate reason for dissolving the lower house.

As a by-product, the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, the largest opposition party, and the Komeito party, the LDP’s former coalition partner, decided to create a new party named the Centrist Reform Alliance. In the course of that process, the CDP acknowledged that the controversial national security legislation is constitutional. The party had previously argued for the abolition of what it called “unconstitutional parts” of the legislation. It is a positive development that the largest opposition party reversed its unrealistic stance on national security policy.

Politics and religion

However, the CDP has been a party that has pursued the issue of “politics and religion” in connection with the former Unification Church. It is therefore jarring to see that same party forming a new party together with the Komeito, whose support base is the religious organization Soka Gakkai. At the House of Councillors Budget Committee in October 2022, a CDP lawmaker grilled a cabinet minister with a question of whether the cabinet minister was a follower of the Unification Church. What kind of political party is the CDP going to create jointly with the Komeito that places more importance on “freedom of religion” than anything else? It is hard to dispel the impression that they are merely engaging in pre‑election number‑crunching.

Taking all these points into account, which is more suitable to steer Japan, Takaichi or the pairing of CDP leader Yoshihiko Noda and Komeito leader Tetsuo Saito? While the answer seems clear, one can still hope for a vigorous policy debate.

Takashi Arimoto is a Planning Committee member at the Japan Institute for National Fundamentals and a columnist at the Sankei Shimbun newspaper.