Japan Institute for National Fundamentals

　
Chinese Ministry of National Defense announced on January 24 that, following deliberations by the Communist Party Central, a decision had been made to open a case and investigate top military officer Zhang Youxia, vice chairman of the Central Military Commission, and Liu Zhenli, chief of staff of the CMC Joint Staff Department, for their suspected serious violations of discipline and law.

The next day, the People’s Liberation Army Daily, the PLA’s official newspaper, stated in its editorial that the reason for opening the case was that the two generals betrayed the trust and mandate of the Party Central and the CMC, and “seriously undermined the CMC Chairperson Responsibility System.” The editorial called on all military officers and soldiers to definitely follow the leadership of the Party Central, the CMC, and CMC Chairman and President Xi Jinping, and to faithfully implement their decisions and plans.

No confusion seen in the military

The phrase “seriously undermined the CMC Chairperson Responsibility System” apparently indicates actions that overstepped their authority and a defiance of Xi’s leadership. The fact that the editorial demands personal loyalty to Xi suggests that Zhang and Liu were purged due to some form of disagreement with Xi, and that the remaining officers and soldiers are expected to pledge absolute obedience to Xi personally, consistent with the military’s stance.

At this stage, publicly available information does not confirm that the purge of these two generals has caused disruptions to the operations of the Chinese military. From December to January, no major changes were seen in military activities towards Taiwan and Japan, operations in the South China Sea and other areas, and training in China. Frontline troops seem to be carrying out their duties calmly. On January 27, Chinese Defense Minister Dong Jun held online talks with his Russian counterpart Andrei Belousov, indicating that Beijing provided a necessary explanation about the purge to Moscow.

A swift Taiwan invasion possible if Xi decides

In response to the purge of Zhang and Liu, Japan should pay close attention to two points.

First, if Xi decides to move the military, the time taken to put the decision into action will be shortened. The current CMC, which unifies command of China’s armed forces, originally consisted of seven members, including Xi, when it was formed in 2022, but it has now been reduced to only two: Xi and Vice Chairman General Zhang Shengmin. Xi now can give direct orders to frontline troops without listening to militarily reasonable advices. If he decides to invade Taiwan, the decision will be carried out immediately without leaking to the outside world, achieving a surprise effect.

Second, Xi’s drive for military reform may accelerate. Under the military reform launched in 2015, organizational and legal changes are nearly complete. At present, war preparations and the reform in new military domains (such as unmanned equipment and space, cyber, and electronic warfare) are underway. In particular, the new-domain reform is essential for pursuing a world-class military on par with that of the United States.

More than 10 generals have already fallen from power since last year, and alongside the anti-corruption drive, it is also possible that this reflects an attempt to remove old officers who cannot catch up with the new-domain reform. Zhang and Liu, ousted this time, have been described as among a few high-ranking military officers with actual combat experiences who served in the Sino-Vietnamese War in 1979. If old generals who dwell on past experiences are removed to allow next-generation officers to undertake the new-domain reform, the strengthening of the Chinese military’s war‑fighting capability may accelerate significantly. We should not misjudge Xi’s strong will to remove old generals to complete his military reform.

Maki Nakagawa is a researcher at the Japan Institute for National Fundamentals and a former commander of the Basic Intelligence Unit, Japan Ground Self-Defense Force.