Japan Institute for National Fundamentals

One of the major purposes of Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s decision to dissolve the House of Representatives for a general election in the middle of winter was to a make progress on the abduction issue with North Korea. There is a possibility that Takaichi will meet North Korean leader Kim Jong Un in the first half of this year. To make the meeting happen, Takaichi needs to demonstrate her level of public support through the upcoming election. Given the likely timetable, she had to hold the election in February.

Trump’s possible visit to Pyongyang in April

“As we have put forward immediate measures to address rising prices, I would like to accelerate efforts to implement policies,” Takaichi told a press conference on January 19 at which she announced the dissolution of the lower house. “Toward resolving the abduction issue, I would like the leaders to engage directly with each other and achieve concrete results. I also would like to venture into ambitious policies and reforms that could divide public opinion.”

She cited the resolution of the abduction issue as her first reason for seeking a mandate from the public. It should also be noted that she mentioned a possible meeting with Kim, saying, “I would like the leaders to engage directly with each other.”

It has already been decided that U.S. President Donald Trump will visit China in April. Since last year, the Kim regime has been working behind the scenes to persuade Trump to visit Pyongyang during that trip. Trump has also repeatedly mentioned the possibility of meeting Kim. The U.S. reaction has been positive, according to North Korean sources

In a bid to lead Trump to visit North Korea, Kim has conducted thorough research about Trump’s preferences. Knowing that Trump enjoys golf, Kim invited a golf player from China last August and, despite his large build, has been taking golf lessons. On the nuclear issue, Kim is considering completely dismantling nuclear weapons production facilities, including a uranium enrichment site in Kangson which he kept hidden during the 2019 U.S.-North Korea summit, as well as eliminating long-range ballistic missiles that can reach the U.S. mainland.

At his meeting with relatives of Japanese abductees in Tokyo last October, Trump made it clear that he would discuss the abduction issue at his next meeting with Kim. At the 2019 summit, Trump tried to persuade Kim that North Korea would become rich if it abandoned nuclear weapons. Although the United States would not provide economic assistance, Japan would do so on the condition that the abduction issue be resolved, Trump told Kim, urging him to hold talks with then‑Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. Kim indicated his intent to do so. The same pattern is likely to be repeated at a possible U.S.–North Korea summit in April this year.

Takaichi also preparing a meeting with Kim

I have received inside information that the Kim regime is seriously considering returning Megumi Yokota and other surviving Japanese abductees through negotiations with Japan. Given that North Korea failed to obtain Japanese economic assistance despite its admission of the abduction and return of five abductees to Japan in 2002, Pyongyang doubts whether Takaichi has the political power to provide such assistance even if she pledges to do so.

That is why Takaichi called a general election in February to confirm public support for her administration, to visit the United States in March to again ask for Trump’s cooperation on the abduction issue, and to prepare for a possible Trump-Kim summit in April and a possible Takaichi-Kim meeting that may follow. Behind the lower house dissolution lies the determination of both Takaichi and Chief Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara, who is in charge of the abduction issue, to recover the abductees from North Korea at all costs.

Tsutomu Nishioka is a senior fellow and a Planning Committee member at the Japan Institute for National Fundamentals and a visiting professor at Reitaku University. He covers South and North Koreas.